News Journal: Paris attacks were a sign of terrorist desperation

The horrifying terrorist attacks in Paris ten days ago united the civilized world and heightened fears about the threat extreme Islam poses in every western country.
I think the attacks were a sign of ISIS desperation, not strength. They were at least in part a reaction to our success against ISIS and Al Qaeda in the Middle East and a consequent change of message by those terrorist groups to disaffected young Muslims everywhere else.
Last summer, when ISIS was sweeping across Iraq and Syria, winning battle after battle, its message in social media on the Internet was for all Muslims to help establish a new Caliphate by coming to the Middle East and joining its forces. Our intelligence officials estimated last August that there were 7,000 foreign fighters in Syria, including dozens of Americans.
Things haven’t worked out for them, or for ISIS itself.
Not many months ago, familiar voices in Washington were insisting that the only way to defeat ISIS was for us to “put boots on the ground.” President Obama resisted that pressure, in part because we learned in Iraq that no matter what our troops did they often ended up being perceived as the enemy instead of the terrorists. Instead, he and a very hard working State Department put together an unprecedented anti-ISIS coalition of over 60 members, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar. Although not perfect, the coalition is a remarkable achievement. For the first time, countries in the Middle East have united against extreme Islam.
The results have been more than encouraging. ISIS in losing ground, not gaining new territory. Coalition airstrikes have killed a number of its leaders and have degraded the ability of ISIS to command and control operations against Iraqi and Kurdish forces. Because of coalition air support, the Kurds broke the ISIS siege of Mount Sinjar and have retaken most of the border town of Kobani.
The major change, and what I believe is the driving force behind renewed terrorist activities by ISIS in Europe, is the decline in the morale of its foreign fighters in the Middle East. One big reason for this is that ISIS has been determined to pursue its mad dream of a caliphate that rules over the entire Middle East. That means it has measured success by occupying territory, not by discrediting existing governments to the point where they can be overthrown. As North Vietnamese General Giap once said, “A guerrilla soldier swims through the people like a fish swims through the seas.” By abandoning that approach, capturing cities and trying to govern them, ISIS has greatly increased its vulnerability to air strikes.
The result, the Financial Times recently reported, is that “local fighters are frustrated. They feel they’re doing most of the work and dying…Foreign fighters who thought they were on an adventure are now exhausted.” FT also reported that ISIS had executed 100 of its foreign fighters, caught trying to flee the northern Syrian city of Raqqa, ISIS’s de facto capital.
ISIS is also having problems with conflicts among foreign fighters from different countries. There were reported battles between the Uzbeck and the Chechen fighters over housing near the Syrian Tabqa airbase as well as reports of foreign troops refusing to let other ethnic groups into their bases.
It is not surprising, then, that ISIS has changed its message in social media. Last summer, it was calling on foreigners to join its forces in the Middle East. Most recently, it has been calling on them to stay at home and wage jihad against targets there. It is that message that may have triggered the Paris attacks.
One of ISIS’s objectives in calling on its supporters to turn to terrorist strikes in their own countries is to get us to take our eye off the ball. Yes, we must ramp up our efforts to combat terrorist strikes in the United States and Europe. But the key to eliminating the scourge of ISIS is to maintain our advantage in the Middle East, where ISIS and Al Qaeda are definitely feeling the pressure.
Ted Kaufman is a former U.S. Senator from Delaware.

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